If President Donald Trump is not the most significant player in global oil markets today, he’s at least its biggest wild card. Tweets savaging OPEC, U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and a precarious trade policy that threatens the health of the global economy can push energy markets in very different directions in the near-term.
What’s clear is the president will not sacrifice his foreign policy goals, chiefly the isolation of Iran in hopes of regime change there, for fear of rising oil prices. Instead, he will blast OPEC on Twitter and pressure Saudi Arabia to pump more oil to tamp down prices. As for Trump’s goal of securing “energy dominance” on the back of the remarkable shale boom, well, that appears to be taking a back seat for now. Washington is back to groveling to Riyadh about hiking supplies to keep U.S. gasoline prices in check and the economy steaming forward, with midterm elections looming in November.